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    美版知乎:中国人均GDP未来20年内能赶超韩国吗

    Will China catch up with South Korea in GDP per capita within 20 years?

    中国人均GDP在未来20年内能赶超韩国吗?

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    QUORA网站读者评论:

    Martin Andrews, Asian analyst.

    Impossible:

    Firstly lets get this straight, South Korea is not like Japan, its economy is not stagnant and is somewhat inter-depended on the Chinese economy.

    While China will continue to grow faster than South Korea for many years to come, South Korea stills grows at 2.5%+ per annum and is likely to grow at that rate for many years to come.

    The South Korea-China trade is very strong and is likely to grow stronger as the years go by, thus as China grows Korea will grow as well.

    China’s massive population will ensure that its PPP Per Capita as a whole remains substantially bellow that of S. Korea.

    This is not to say that parts of China won’t catch up, infact some cities already have a PPP Per Capita comparable to S. Korea (Shenzhen and Hong Kong), the other tier 1 cities will follow.

    不可能:

    首先我们得搞清楚,韩国不像日本,经济并未停滞不前,而且在某种程度上?#35272;?#20110;中国经济

    虽然在未来许多年,中国的经济增速?#36234;?#36229;过韩国,但韩国的经济增速?#36234;?#20445;持在每年2.5%以上,而且很可能在未来许多年维持这一增速。

    中韩贸易非常强劲,而且可能会随着时间的推移而增长,因此随着中国的增长,韩国也会增长。

    中国庞大的人口将使其人均购买力平价仍大大低于韩国。

    这并不是说中国的部分地区无法迎头赶上,事实上,有一些城市的人均购买力平价已经可以与韩国(深圳和香港)相媲美,其他一线城市也将紧随其后。

     

    Glenn Luk, Invests in China

    Barring war or some enormous massive disaster befalling South Korea, no they won't.

    There is only one scenario where I can see them getting close and that is if the Koreas decide to re-unite. Today, a hypothetical combined Korea would have 75 million people and per capita GDP (PPP adjusted) of around $23k [1]. China today has a per capita GDP of around $11k. If China grows at 6% real and the combined Korea at 2%, my friend Math says they reach parity in 20 years.

    But this is also a very, very low probability scenario within a 20-year window. The two Koreas have diverged so much the costs of reunification would be enormous.

    除非韩国发生战争或重大灾难,否则不可能。

    我认为只有一种情况,那就是朝鲜半岛重新统一。今天,如果南北朝鲜统一,总人口达到7500万,人均GDP(经购买力平价调整后)约为23000美元。今天的中国人均GDP约为11000美元。我的朋友Math说,如果中国的实际增长率为6%,而韩国的综合增长率为2%,那么两国将在20年后达到同?#20154;?#24179;。

    但在20年内,这种可能性还是非常非常低。朝韩两国分歧太大,统一的代价将非常巨大。

     

    Lee Szi Kiat

    Honestly? It is very, very hard to say. While the answers above are reasonable, I somehow do disagree, with respect of course.

    It seems to me that most of us, which is entirely human nature, to extrapolate indefinitely in the future, which is where we get all the "China surpassing USA" data. It might happen, OR it might not happen. It is set more than a decade into the future, we don't know.

    Can you tell me what would happen tomorrow? An earthquake? A lottery win? Constipation? No.

    My point is, China is growing reasonably fast now, but it may not be so in the future. When it reaches the point of maturity, which is now, it will slow down, as you can see now.. Much more of a probability then China never going through a recession. Growth rates will slow, everything will normalize. It is pointless to make judgements based on today's performance, because it might change tomorrow or even the next second.

    译文来源:三泰虎           译者:Joyceliu

    老实说?这很难。虽然上面的答案看着都很合理,但我还是无法认同,当然了,我没有不敬之意。

    在我看来,我们大多数人,完全?#24378;?#30528;人类的天性不确定地推断未来,这就是我们会得出“中国将赶超美国”的数据的原因。这可能发生,?#37096;?#33021;不会发生。它是未来十多年以后的事,我们不知道。

    你能告诉我明天会发生什么吗?会地震吗?会中彩票吗?会便秘吗?不可能的。

    我的观点是,中国目前的增长相当快,但未来可能不会依然如此。当它达到巅峰的时候,也就是现在,它就会慢下来,正如你现在看到的。更有可能的是,中国从未经历过经济衰退。经济增长会放?#28023;?#19968;切都会正常化。根据今天的表现做判断是没有意义的,因为明天甚至下一秒可能就会发生改变。

    The best way we can predict, in my opinion, is that we look at data that contributes to the future. Such as demographics, which are absolutely essential (as shown in the case of Japan), investments in R&D and so on.

    I feel that China has too large of a population to satisfy all of its citizens needs. So to me, no, China might not be able to catch up to South Korea in per capita in 20 years or longer, accounting to the fact of inevitable negative shocks, ie. falling growth, recessions, demographics.

    在我看来,我们能预测的最好方法,就是看看那些对未来有帮助的数据。例如人口统计数据,这是绝对必要的(如日本的情况所示),对研发的投?#23454;?#31561;。

    我觉得中国人口太多,不能满足所有公民的需要。因此,对我来说,不,中国的人均水平可能无法在20年或更长时间内赶上韩国,原因就是负面的冲击,比如增长率下降,衰退,人口数据。

     

    Darrell Francis, lived in South Korea

    It depends on how you measure GDP. If you're using nominal GDP, it will be virtually impossible for China to catch-up with South Korea in 20 years. For China to reach the same level of GDP per capita as South Korea has today in 20 years, GDP per capita would need to grow by at least 10% every year. To match South Korea in 20 years would require greater sustained growth than China has ever seen.

    If you're using real GDP, the goal of surpassing South Korea becomes a little less daunting. For China's GDP per capita in 20 years to match South Korea's current GDP per capita, it would only require 6% annual growth, which is high, but possible. China's ability to surpass South Korea would then depend on how much South Korea grows over the next 20 years. Given that South Korea's GDP per capita is still growing at over 4% annually, this will be a challenge.

    Competition from China is unlikely to greatly diminish the South Korean economy. The growing economy of China means the opening up of a massive consumer market which is a major opportunity for both China and South Korea. There may be more Chinese products on the market, but the market will also be much larger.

    这取决于你如何计算GDP。如果你对比的是名义GDP,中国在20年内几乎不可能赶上韩国。中国要想达到韩国20年后人均GDP的水平,人均GDP每年至少需要增长10%。想在20年内赶上韩国,中国需要比以往任何时候都维持更高的增长。

    如果你对比是实际GDP,超过韩国的目标就没有那么困难了。中国的人均GDP要在20年内赶上韩国目前的人均GDP,只需保持6%的年增长率就可以了,这虽然很高,但还是可能的。届?#20445;?#20013;国能否超越韩国就取决于韩国未来20年的经济增长速度。鉴于韩国的人均GDP仍以每年4%以上的速度增长,这会?#19988;?#20010;挑战。

    来自中国的竞争不太可能大幅削弱韩国经济。中国经济的增长意味着一个巨大?#21335;?#36153;市场的开放,这对中国和韩国来说?#38469;且?#20010;重大的机遇。市场上可能会有更多的中国产品,但市场容量也会大得多。

     

    Anonymous

    This is not a question that can be answered by any linear interpolation on economic factors. This is a political question. Whatever Korean can do, Chinese can do it, and do it better. Therefore, China can have a GDP per capita higher than South Korea, but US will try its best to put China down. For instance, US may push Chinese companies who deliver exactly the same or higher quality products compare to Korean competitors out of every markets it has influence on (However, the only reason US is interested in doing this is because these Korean companies are in many ways owned by American investors) What the result would be is purely a political question instead of an economic one.

    这不?#19988;?#20010;可以用经济因素来回答的问题。这?#19988;?#20010;政治问题。无论韩国人能做什么,中国人都能做,而且做得更好。因此,中国的人均GDP可以高于韩国,但美国将尽其所能打压中国。例如,美国可能会逼迫中国企业在所有国家提供跟韩国竞争对?#28382;?#20840;相同或更高质量的产品(然而,美国会感兴趣这么做的唯一原因?#19988;?#20026;这些韩国公司在许多方面?#38469;?#23646;于美国投资者的),这么做的结果会是?#30475;?#30340;政治问题,而非经济问题。

     

    Karen Ip, studied at University of Melbourne

    Within 20 years? Definitely no.

    1.No matter how much China will and has achieved, whenever you have to divide that amount into 1.4 billion, it will not be a huge number.

    2.The last recorded GDP per capita for Korea is USD26,152.03 in Y2017, whilst China is USD7329.09. South Korea is 3.56 times of GDP per capita of China.

    3.In Y2012, the Chinese government announced their target of doubling their GDP per capita based on GDP per capita in Y2010 (which is USD4,560.51) in Y2020. (That is, To reach USD9,121.02 per capita).

    4.Assuming Y2038 is the 20 years deadline, and China is able to double her GDP per capita every 10 years since Y2018 (which is unlikely because the economic growth rate is slowing down as it gets more developed), China’s GDP per capita will be around 31,075.34 — here is the most optimistic estimate.

    5.Korea GDP per capita with an assumption of a modest annual growth of 2% will reach USD38,860.54 20 years later.

    6.I think it will make more sense if one compare a large mega city in China ( like Shanghai, Shenzhen) to similar population of South Korea will be more appropriate measure.

    20年内?#38752;?#23450;不可能。

    1.无论中国能取得或者已取得多大成?#20572;?#19968;旦把这个数字除以14亿,都不可能?#19988;?#20010;很大的数字。

    2.2017年韩国人均GDP为26152.03美元,中国为7329.09美元。韩国人均GDP是中国的3.56倍。

    3.2012年,中国宣布到2020年,要在2010年人均GDP(4560.51美元)的基础上实现翻一番(即人均9121.02美元)。

    4.假设从现在2018年到2038年,也就是20年后,中国的人均GDP每10年?#38469;?#29616;翻倍(这是不可能的,因为中国经济越来越发展,增长速度逐渐放缓),中国的人均GDP将达到31075.34,这是最乐观的估计。

    5.假设年增长率为2%,20年后,韩国的人均GDP将达到38860.54美元。

    6.我认为,如果将中国的大城市(如上海、深圳)与韩国人口相似的城市进行比较,会更有意义。

     

    Jeff Lee, Truth Seeker

    Like Japan after World War II, China has gone from a nation of copycats of cheap consumer goods to innovators capable of building leading edge manufacturing plants. They resemble the potential of the USA in 1890, (a growing urban educated base, a new infrastructure, access to vast resources), capable of jumping 100 years of equivalent development in only 20 years.  In so doing, they will also grow a profitable consumer demand led economy, helping stabilizing it during any market downturn pressures experienced by the other developed economies. So, yes, I think China will likely outpace South Korea, but it may only get their in year 20.

    与二战后的日本一样,中国已经从一个仿制廉价消费品的国家,变成了有能力建设具有领先优势的制造工厂的创新国家。她们表现除了1890年美国的潜力(城市教育基础、新的基础设施、庞大的资源总量不断增长),能够在短短20年内就实现100年的发展目标。通过这个方式,她们还将推动以消?#30740;?#27714;为主导的能赚钱的经济,在其它发达经济体遭遇市场低迷压力时帮助稳定经济。所以,是的,我认为中国很可能会超过韩国,但可能在20年后才会赶上他们。

     

    Jalil Abdullayev, knows Korean

    PPP gdp per capita of China is around 18000 while it is around 40000 for South Korea. So China needs to double its economy in 20 years. If current growth rate continues then China will more than exceed that.

    However, South Korea economy also grows and it could grow by 50% over 20 years.

    So I think China will not catch up in 20 years but it will come very close

    中国的人均购买力平价GDP在18000左右,而韩国的人均购买力平价GDP在40000左右。因此,中国需要在20年内实现经济翻番?#24222;?#21487;能。如果目前的增长速度能够维持,那么中国将超过韩国。

    然而,韩国的经济也在增长,在未来20年里可能会增长50%。

    所以我认为中国在20年内赶不上韩国,但会非常接近。

     

    Kai Lee

    It's hard to happen. Unless South Korea is unified or war occurs. South Korea depends on the Chinese economy. Most of South Korea’s exports have gone to China. China's economic growth South Korea's economic growth. The Chinese economy has declined and the Korean economy has declined. China has too much population. But the first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai Shenzhou will surpass South Korea and even Seoul.

    这种情况很难发生。除非两朝统一或者爆发战争。韩国?#35272;?#20013;国经济。韩国的大部分出口都流向了中国。中国的经济增长,则韩国的经济就增长。中国的经济下滑,则韩国经济下滑。中国人口太多了。但像?#26412;?#21644;上海这样的一线城市将超过韩国,甚至首尔。

     

    William Hennigan, lived in China

    No.

    There certainly are some excellent rational answers below. But, there is a dramatic difference in culture and politics between Korea and China. Those factors will inhibit China. This is genuinely an apples to oranges situation.

    Everyone always projects into the future using straight lines, but it never is a straight line - for anybody.

    不可能。

    后面肯定有一些很好的理?#28304;?#26696;。但是,韩国和中国在文化和政治上存在着巨大的差异。这些因素将制约中国。这确实?#19988;?#20010;截然不同的情况。

    所有人都会用直线思维来预测未来,但对任何人来说,未来绝对不?#19988;?#26465;直线。

     

    Richard Saw

    Both not and yes .

    not:The earth could not provide the west standard of the living for 1.4billions chinese .

    yes:But china could bring the west standard of living down to the level of china .

    GDP per capita would be the same,maybe china couldn't catch up with south korean,but china could bring the GDP per capita of korean down to the level of china .

    ?#37096;?#33021;,也不可能。

    不可能?#19988;?#20026;:地球无力以西方的生活标准供养14亿中国人。

    可能?#19988;?#20026;:中国可以把西方的生活水平降低到中国的水平。

    人均GDP可能会一样,也许中国赶不上韩国,但是中国可以把韩国的人均GDP降到中国的水平。

     

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